A Macroeconomic Framework for Quantifying Systemic Risk
American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics
vol. 11,
no. 4, October 2019
(pp. 1-37)
Abstract
Systemic risk arises when shocks lead to states where a disruption in financial intermediation adversely affects the economy and feeds back into further disrupting financial intermediation. We present a macroeconomic model with a financial intermediary sector subject to an equity capital constraint. The novel aspect of our analysis is that the model produces a stochastic steady state distribution for the economy, in which only some of the states correspond to systemic risk states. The model allows us to examine the transition from "normal" states to systemic risk states. We calibrate our model and use it to match the systemic risk apparent during the 2007/2008 financial crisis. We also use the model to compute the conditional probabilities of arriving at a systemic risk state, such as 2007/2008. Finally, we show how the model can be used to conduct a macroeconomic "stress test" linking a stress scenario to the probability of systemic risk states.Citation
He, Zhiguo, and Arvind Krishnamurthy. 2019. "A Macroeconomic Framework for Quantifying Systemic Risk." American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 11 (4): 1-37. DOI: 10.1257/mac.20180011Additional Materials
JEL Classification
- E13 General Aggregative Models: Neoclassical
- E44 Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
- E52 Monetary Policy
- G01 Financial Crises
- G21 Banks; Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
- G28 Financial Institutions and Services: Government Policy and Regulation
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