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Selecting Mutual Funds

Paper Session

Friday, Jan. 4, 2019 10:15 AM - 12:15 PM

Hilton Atlanta, Grand Ballroom D
Hosted By: American Finance Association
  • Chair: Russ Wermers, University of Maryland

Selection and Timing Skill in Bond Mutual Fund Returns: Evidence from Bootstrap Simulations

Lifa Huang
,
University of Arkansas
Wayne Lee
,
University of Arkansas
Craig Rennie
,
University of Arkansas

Abstract

Bootstrap simulations of monthly returns of U.S. open-end actively-managed domestic bond mutual funds between 1999 and 2016 show benchmark adjusted returns that more than cover costs. Over this horizon, the top performing half of bond funds generate significant positive precision-adjusted alpha on returns net of expenses. Similar results hold for government and corporate bond funds, and across bond funds stratified by assets under management (AUM). We find bond fund managers to be more proficient at selection than timing. For the top performing half of bond funds, selection always contributes to performance. Economic value from selection is greatest for large bond funds with AUM>$750M at 40.8bps on AUM, and for government and bond funds is 19.0 bps and 18.2 bps. For the top performing half of bond funds and large bond funds, timing detracts from performance. However, timing contributes to performance for government and corporate bond funds and is the source of outperformance over 3-year horizons.

Is There a Home Field Advantage in Global Markets?

Murali Jagannathan
,
State University of New York-Binghamton
Wei Jiao
,
Binghamton University-SUNY
Andrew Karolyi
,
Cornell University

Abstract

International equity mutual funds that hire managers from a country linked to the fund`s geographic mandate exhibit a strong bias to invest in stocks of that country. These funds with “home-biased managers” attract disproportionally more flows, on average, that intensify during periods of higher economic uncertainty in that country. Stocks domiciled in countries in which the fund has a home-field advantage outperform those held by other funds without home-biased managers, but with investments in the same countries. We interpret this new finding as evidence of an information-based channel through which the home-bias phenomenon may be revealed and link it to theories that emphasize the role of an informational endowment advantage.

Distortions Caused by Asset Managers Retaining Securities Lending Income

Travis Johnson
,
University of Texas-Austin
Gregory Weitzner
,
University of Texas

Abstract

Mutual funds and ETFs that lend their shares to short-sellers often retain a fraction of the resulting fees rather than returning them to investors, incentiving them to overweight stocks with high lending fees. In a heterogeneous agent model, we show this incentive distorts equilibrium portfolio choices, fund performance, and asset pricing. Our model explains many empirical patterns: lending funds overweight high lending fee stocks, underperform, and charge lower management fees than non-lending funds; lending fees negatively predict future fee-exclusive and fee-inclusive stock returns; and conditions affecting lending markets often have no effect on equilibrium share prices.

Cross-Sectional Alpha Dispersion and Performance Evaluation

Campbell Harvey
,
Duke University
Yan Liu
,
Texas A&M University

Abstract

Our paper explores the link between cross-sectional fund return dispersion and performance evaluation. The foundation of our model is the simple intuition that in periods of high return dispersion, it is easier for unskilled managers to disguise themselves as skilled. Indeed, in a world of little or no dispersion, it is obvious who is skilled and unskilled. Rational investors should then apply higher discounts to performance in high dispersion environments. Our empirical
results support this prediction. Using fund ow data, we show that a one-standard deviation increase in return dispersion causes a 11%-17% decline in ow-performance sensitivity.
Discussant(s)
Gjergji Cici
,
University of Kansas
Veronika Pool
,
Indiana University
Adam Reed
,
University of North Carolina-Chapel Hill
Wayne Ferson
,
University of Southern California
JEL Classifications
  • G1 - General Financial Markets