Will there be a bad recession this year?

Question

Because the marginal increase in workers being hired is flattening out, I humbly think that businesses will not be able to find additional workers so they may end up having a hard time paying off the interest payments for the debt that was originally borrowed to hire workers in the first place. I tried to empirically show this in my paper as a potential major cause of previous recessions. My paper on academia.edu discusses this hypothesis: https://www.academia.edu/38042191/A_New_Hypotheses_for_the_Underlying_Causes_of_the_Business_Cycle  Would you agree with the previous statements, and that this will possibly cause an economic downturn soon?

Answer 1

Hello again Brennan.

Your econometric research is quite useful. In my opinion those effects you mentioned are just effects created by a greater problem.

I finally released my work about Business Cycles a few months ago. Maybe you missed it. It's called "Very important. Release of Business Cycles main cause" . You can find it in my questions. I hope you enjoy it. It's quite similar to Keynes approach to the same issue.

You can give me your feedback or ask me any question. With my economic model, those problems you depict on this work wouldn't be something to be concerned about.

Kind Regards
Ryan McConnell

Comments

PD: Maybe next time you should show the Cointegration Regression to know how many delays you used based on Akaike or any other tool.