For estimating the fiscal impact of commissioning utility-scale solar plants, I would consider a staggered difference-in-differences approach with an event-study design. This would allow you to compare county revenues and expenditures before and after commissioning against suitable comparison counties, while accounting for differences in commissioning dates.
You would also want to consider construction-period effects, local tax incentives, and whether revenues accrue to county governments or other taxing jurisdictions.
One possible extension involves Productive Value–Productive Power (PV-PP), a mathematical framework I’ve developed for analyzing productive systems.
Conventional econometrics can estimate the immediate fiscal effects. PV-PP offers an additional perspective: how does the investment change a county’s longer-term productive capacity?
For example, increased tax revenue might improve infrastructure, workforce capabilities, fiscal resilience, or future economic opportunities. Conversely, an investment could increase current revenues while creating dependencies or reducing alternative productive uses of local resources.
PV-PP distinguishes value received from changes in the capacity to generate and sustain future value. It could provide a useful framework for interpreting these broader consequences once the initial econometric results are established.
Framework overview:
https://amundsenlance.github.io/pvpp-framework/
