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  5. Political Social-Learning: Short-Term Memory and Cycles of Polarisation

American Economic Review

ISSN 0002-8282 (Print) | ISSN 1944-7981 (Online)

Political Social-Learning: Short-Term Memory and Cycles of Polarisation

  • Gilat Levy
  • Ronny Razin
American Economic Review (Forthcoming)

Abstract

We investigate the influence of voters' short-term memory on political outcomes by considering politics as a collective learning process. We find that short-term memory may lead to cycles of polarisation and consensus in parties' platforms. Following periods of party consensus, short-term memory implies little variation in voters' data and therefore limited information about the true state of the world. This in turn allows parties to further their own interests and polarise by offering different policies. Periods of polarisation involve sufficient variation that allows voters to be confident about what the correct policy is, forcing parties to both offer this policy.

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