Escaping Malthus: Economic Growth and Fertility Change in the Developing World
American Economic Review
vol. 108,
no. 6, June 2018
(pp. 1440-67)
Abstract
Following mid-twentieth century predictions of Malthusian catastrophe, fertility in the developing world more than halved, while living standards more than doubled. We analyze how fertility change related to economic growth during this episode, using data on 2.3 million women from 255 household surveys. We find different responses to fluctuations and long-run growth, both heterogeneous over the life cycle. Fertility was procyclical but declined and delayed with long-run growth; fluctuations late (but not early) in the reproductive period affected lifetime fertility. The results are consistent with models of the escape from the Malthusian trap, extended with a life cycle and liquidity constraints.Citation
Chatterjee, Shoumitro, and Tom Vogl. 2018. "Escaping Malthus: Economic Growth and Fertility Change in the Developing World." American Economic Review, 108 (6): 1440-67. DOI: 10.1257/aer.20170748Additional Materials
JEL Classification
- D15 Intertemporal Household Choice; Life Cycle Models and Saving
- I12 Health Behavior
- I15 Health and Economic Development
- J13 Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
- J16 Economics of Gender; Non-labor Discrimination
- O15 Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration
- O47 Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence