The Information-Technology Revolution and the Stock Market: Evidence
- (pp. 1203-1220)
Abstract
Why did the stock market decline so much in the early 1970s and remain low until the early 1980s? We argue that it was because information technology arrived on the scene and the stock-market incumbents of the day were not ready to implement it. Instead, new firms would bring in the new technology after the mid-1980s. Investors foresaw this in the early 1970s and stock prices fell right away. In our model, new capital destroys old capital, but with a lag. The prospect of this causes the value of the old capital to fall right away.Citation
Hobijn, Bart, and Boyan Jovanovic. 2001. "The Information-Technology Revolution and the Stock Market: Evidence." American Economic Review, 91 (5): 1203-1220. DOI: 10.1257/aer.91.5.1203JEL Classification
- G12 Asset Pricing; Trading volume; Bond Interest Rates
- O33 Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes