Expected Returns to Crime and Crime Location

Braakmann, Nils; Chevalier, Arnaud; Wilson, Tanya

doi:10.1257/app.20220585

Abstract

We provide first evidence that temporal variations in the expected returns to crime affect the location of property crime. Our identification strategy relies on the widely-held perception in the UK that households of South Asian descent store gold jewellery at home. Price movements on the international market for gold exogenously affect the expected gains from burgling these households, which become relatively more lucrative targets as the gold price increases. Using a neighbourhood-level panel on reported crime and difference-in-differences, we find that burglaries in South Asian neighbourhoods are more sensitive to variations in the gold price than other neighbourhoods in the same municipality, confirming that burglars react rationally to variations in the expected returns to their activities. We conduct a battery of robustness tests to eliminate alternative explanations.

This website uses cookies.

Expected Returns to Crime and Crime Location

Abstract

Downloads