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The Long-Run Effects of California’s Paid Family Leave Act on Women’s Careers and Childbearing: New Evidence from a Regression Discontinuity Design and U.S. Tax Data
The Long-Run Effects of California’s Paid Family Leave Act on Women’s Careers and Childbearing: New Evidence from a Regression Discontinuity Design and U.S. Tax Data
Martha Bailey
Tanya Byker
Elena Patel
Shanthi Ramnath
American Economic Journal: Economic Policy (Forthcoming)
Abstract
We use administrative tax data to analyze the cumulative, long-run effects of California’s
2004 Paid Family Leave Act (CPFL) on women’s employment, earnings, and childbearing.
A regression-discontinuity design exploits the sharp increase in the weeks of paid leave
available under the law. We find no evidence that CPFL increased employment, boosted
earnings, or encouraged childbearing, suggesting that CPFL had little effect on the gender
pay gap or child penalty. For first-time mothers, we find that CPFL reduced employment
and earnings roughly a decade after they gave birth.
