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The Impacts of Educational Policies on Disadvantaged Groups

Paper Session

Friday, Jan. 3, 2025 8:00 AM - 10:00 AM (PST)

Hilton San Francisco Union Square, Union Square 22
Hosted By: American Economic Association
  • Chair: Christopher Walters, University of California-Berkeley

The Disparate Long Run Impacts of Academic Probation

Serena Canaan
,
Simon Fraser University
Stefanie Fischer
,
Monash University
Pierre Mouganie
,
Simon Fraser University
Geoffrey Schnorr
,
University of California-Los Angeles and The California Employment Development Department

Abstract

Academic Probation is a widely used tool that is implemented in nearly all North American universities and in many other universities worldwide. Broadly defined, academic probation involves notifying low-performing students that they need to improve their GPA or will be dismissed from university. Despite its popularity, the long-run effects of academic probation are still poorly understood. Our paper is the first to look at the effects of this policy on students' labor market outcomes. To do so, we draw on rich linked administrative data for all first-year students entering a large public university in the state of California from 2007 to 2009. We use a regression discontinuity design that leverages as-good-as-random variation in the likelihood that students are placed on academic probation based on a 2.0 GPA cutoff. Results indicate that academic probation has negative effects on 6-year graduation and earnings but estimates are not statistically significant at conventional levels. These overall effects mask substantial heterogeneity based on socioeconomic background. High-income students’ academic and labor market outcomes are largely unaffected by probation. However, low-income students experience a significant 27.6 percentage point (42%) decrease in 6-year graduation rates and a 42% drop in earnings. This has serious policy implications for ongoing discussions on the widening of socioeconomic gaps in the U.S.

The Effects of Accelerated Middle School Math on STEM Degree Completion

Laura Giuliano
,
University of California-Santa Cruz and NBER
David Card
,
University of California-Berkeley and NBER

Abstract

Women are less likely than men to graduate from college with degrees in science, technology, engineering and math (STEM) fields – a gap that is often attributed to pre-college factors. We study the effects of an accelerated middle school math program for high-achieving students on college completion and major choice, focusing on potential gender differences. The program creates an upper track for students who are already taking advanced math in 6th grade: we use a regression discontinuity approach to show that admission to the upper track leads to substantial gains the fraction completing algebra and/or geometry by 8th grade, with larger effects for female students. It also leads to a significant 15 percentage point (ppt) gain in the fraction of females taking calculus by the end of high school, and a 9 ppt rise in the share of young women who graduate high school on time and enter college the next fall. These changes are accompanied by a 7 ppt rise in the share of young women who graduate within 5 years with a bachelor’s degree in STEM, and a 10 ppt rise in the share with a degree in STEM or business/economics. In contrast, the effects on the college completion and major choice of males are uniformly small and insignificant.

Should States Allow For-Profit Companies to Train Teachers? Evidence from Texas

Christa Deneault
,
Federal Trade Commission
Evan Riehl
,
Cornell University

Abstract

Roughly half of all newly-certified Texas teachers receive their training from a for-profit company, and these companies are expanding their operations to other U.S. states. This paper uses administrative data from Texas to provide the first comprehensive analysis of the effectiveness of for-profit teacher training programs. Consistent with for-profits' business model of offering an easier path to a teaching career, we find that the growth of for-profit programs significantly increased the supply of certified teachers in Texas, which reduced school districts' reliance on uncertified teachers. Yet for-profit-trained teachers have higher turnover rates and slightly lower value-added than teachers from other certification routes, consistent with concerns about the quality of for-profit programs. To examine the net impact of these supply and quality mechanisms, we exploit variation in geographic concentration of for-profit openings and in the grade levels at which they produce certificates. On net, we find small and statistically insignificant impacts of for-profit exposure on the achievement of Texas students, suggesting that the supply benefits were offset by the negative quality effects.

Labor Market Strength and Declining Community College Enrollment

Joshua Goodman
,
Boston University and NBER
Joseph Winkelmann
,
Harvard University

Abstract

In the U.S., declining college enrollment has driven substantial policy conversation about the health of the postsecondary sector. We first show descriptively that enrollment declines: have little to do with the four-year sector; are driven largely by community colleges; and that some of this apparent decline is to changing classifications of college sectors. Pre-Great Recession data shows that a 1 percent point increase in the local unemployment rate reduces first-time community college enrollment by about 2 percent. Applying this estimate suggests that strengthening labor markets since 2009 explain about half of the post-Great Recession decline in first-time community college enrollment. The marginal missing student appears unlikely to have completed a college degree.

Discussant(s)
Serena Canaan
,
Simon Fraser University
Evan Riehl
,
Cornell University
Damon Clark
,
University of California-Irvine
Melanie Wasserman
,
University of California-Los Angeles
JEL Classifications
  • I2 - Education and Research Institutions
  • J0 - General