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Economics of Post-War Reconstruction

Paper Session

Sunday, Jan. 3, 2027 8:00 AM - 10:00 AM (EST)

Grand Hyatt Washington
Hosted By: Association for Comparative Economic Studies
  • Chair: Tatyana Deryugina, University of Illinois-Urbana-Champaign

Engineering Ukraine’s Wirtschaftswunder

Ufuk Akcigit
,
University of Chicago
Furkan Kilic
,
University of Chicago
Somik Lall
,
World Bank
Solomiya Shpak
,
World Bank

Abstract

As Ukraine rebuilds from war, it has an opportunity for a productivity-driven economic transformation similar to post-war West Germany. Using 25 years of firm-level data, this paper identifies structural distortions suppressing creative destruction and productivity, including declining business dynamism and rising market concentration among low-productivity incumbents. Drawing on models by Acemoglu et al. (2018) and Akcigit et al. (2021), the study finds that disciplining entrenched incumbents is fundamental to reviving business dynamism. Targeted firm-level policies alone have limited impact when incumbents remain unchecked, making institutional reform critical to engineering Ukraine's long-term economic transformation.

Testing for Market Power in Agricultural Land Markets: Evidence from Ukraine

Klaus Deininger
,
World Bank

Abstract

Agricultural land markets are critical for structural transformation but may, as farm sizes increase, also be exposed to operators exercising market power. To explore this issue, this paper uses administrative data for the universe of about 1 million agricultural land lease transactions in Ukraine from 2021 to 2024. Tenant fixed effect regressions indicate that, compared to village councils (VCs) where it controlled less than 10 percent of the land before a transaction, the same tenant paid 4 or 7.5 percent ($3.66 or $6.86 per ha and year) less rent (for longer) in VCs where it controlled between 10% and 33% or more than 33% of the available land. The size of markdowns is unaffected by the war, supporting their interpretation as a sign of market power. A land sales moratorium failed to curb market power and instead hurt owners, pointing to a need for smarter approaches to regulation.

The Word Is Not Enough: Testing the Effects of Information Treatments on Perceived Corruption in Ukraine

Yuriy Gorodnichenko
,
University of California-Berkeley
Ilona Sologoub
,
Vox Ukraine
Yuriy Fedyk
,
AI for Good Foundation

Abstract

Using a representative sample of 7,000+ Ukrainians, we examine how information treatments affect corruption perceptions and prosocial behavior. We find a large gap between perceived and experienced corruption: most view it as widespread, yet few report direct exposure. A randomized controlled trial shows that informing citizens about successful prosecutions raises perceived government willingness to fight corruption but does not reduce overall corruption perceptions. Information on corruption's scale generates no significant effects. Treatments have little impact on donations or volunteering, suggesting beliefs weakly translate into action. Information interventions alone cannot tangibly improve civic engagement or reduce corruption perceptions.

Decentralisation and Economic Growth: Evidence from Ukraine

Oleksii Hamaniuk
,
University of Bonn
Benedikt Hermann
,
European Committion
Felix Roesel
,
Technische Universität Braunschweig

Abstract

What are the economic benefits of decentralisation? In this study, we analyse the staggered roll-out of local self-government in Ukraine between 2015 and 2020. We adopt an IV strategy using exogenous variation in the timing of the roll-out across regions. Our estimations show that night-time luminosity in locations with decentralised local governments grows by at least 2% more per year. One potential mechanism for this is improved public infrastructure, particularly local roads. Crucially, spatial heterogeneity does not rise, indicating that the reform does not exacerbate regional inequality. These findings provide evidence that decentralization can be a catalyst for broad-based economic development in transition economies.
JEL Classifications
  • O1 - Economic Development