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  3. American Economic Review
  4. December 2004
  5. Bad Beta, Good Beta

American Economic Review

ISSN 0002-8282 (Print) | ISSN 1944-7981 (Online)

Bad Beta, Good Beta

  • John Y. Campbell
  • Tuomo Vuolteenaho
American Economic Review
vol. 94, no. 5, December 2004
(pp. 1249–1275)
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Abstract

This paper explains the size and value "anomalies" in stock returns using an economically motivated two-beta model. We break the beta of a stock with the market portfolio into two components, one reflecting news about the market's future cash flows and one reflecting news about the market's discount rates. Intertemporal asset pricing theory suggests that the former should have a higher price of risk; thus beta, like cholesterol, comes in "bad" and "good" varieties. Empirically, we find that value stocks and small stocks have considerably higher cash-flow betas than growth stocks and large stocks, and this can explain their higher average returns. The poor performance of the capital asset pricing model (CAPM) since 1963 is explained by the fact that growth stocks and high-past-beta stocks have predominantly good betas with low risk prices.

Citation

Campbell, John, Y., and Tuomo Vuolteenaho. 2004. "Bad Beta, Good Beta." American Economic Review, 94 (5): 1249–1275. DOI: 10.1257/0002828043052240

Additional Materials

JEL Classification

  • G12 Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
  • G14 Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading