American Economic Review
ISSN 0002-8282 (Print) | ISSN 1944-7981 (Online)
Overconfidence in Political Behavior
American Economic Review
vol. 105,
no. 2, February 2015
(pp. 504–35)
Abstract
This paper studies, theoretically and empirically, the role of overconfidence in political behavior. Our model of overconfidence in beliefs predicts that overconfidence leads to ideological extremeness, increased voter turnout, and stronger partisan identification. The model also makes nuanced predictions about the patterns of ideology in society. These predictions are tested using unique data that measure the overconfidence and standard political characteristics of a nationwide sample of over 3,000 adults. Our numerous predictions find strong support in these data. In particular, we document that overconfidence is a substantively and statistically important predictor of ideological extremeness, voter turnout, and partisan identification. (JEL C83, D03, D72, D83)Citation
Ortoleva, Pietro, and Erik Snowberg. 2015. "Overconfidence in Political Behavior." American Economic Review, 105 (2): 504–35. DOI: 10.1257/aer.20130921Additional Materials
JEL Classification
- C83 Survey Methods; Sampling Methods
- D91 Micro-Based Behavioral Economics: Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making
- D72 Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
- D83 Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness