American Economic Journal:
Economic Policy
ISSN 1945-7731 (Print) | ISSN 1945-774X (Online)
Rainfall Inequality, Political Power, and Ethnic Conflict in Africa
American Economic Journal: Economic Policy
(pp. 38–60)
Abstract
How are ethnic inequality and ethnic violence related? We empirically investigate this question using an innovative measure of resource inequality between ethnic groups, based on rainfall in ethnic homelands during the plant-growing season. Our main dataset covers the period 1950–2020 and includes 250 ethnicities located across 43 African countries. Our results indicate that rainfall-based inequality is a strong predictor of ethnic violence and that the link heavily depends on the power relations across ethnic groups. In terms of mechanisms, our results suggest that resource inequality leads to more ethnic conflicts by exacerbating grievances.Citation
Guariso, Andrea, and Thorsten Rogall. 2026. "Rainfall Inequality, Political Power, and Ethnic Conflict in Africa." American Economic Journal: Economic Policy 18 (3): 38–60. DOI: 10.1257/pol.20210174Additional Materials
JEL Classification
- D63 Equity, Justice, Inequality, and Other Normative Criteria and Measurement
- D72 Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
- D74 Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions
- J15 Economics of Minorities, Races, Indigenous Peoples, and Immigrants; Non-labor Discrimination
- O15 Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration
- O17 Formal and Informal Sectors; Shadow Economy; Institutional Arrangements
- Q54 Climate; Natural Disasters and Their Management; Global Warming