American Economic Journal:
Economic Policy
ISSN 1945-7731 (Print) | ISSN 1945-774X (Online)
Trade Protection along Supply Chains
American Economic Journal: Economic Policy
(pp. 273–307)
Abstract
We study the effects of trade protection along supply chains. We focus on temporary trade barriers against China, which has been the main target of US trade protection during the last decades. To deal with endogeneity concerns, we use an instrumental variable strategy, exploiting changes in the identity of swing states across presidential terms and heterogeneous exposure to these political shocks across industries. We find that politically motivated trade protection generates winners and losers: It fosters employment growth in protected industries but hampers employment growth in downstream industries. Our estimates imply a negative overall impact on US jobs.Citation
Bown, Chad P., Paola Conconi, Aksel Erbahar, and Lorenzo Trimarchi. 2026. "Trade Protection along Supply Chains." American Economic Journal: Economic Policy 18 (4): 273–307. DOI: 10.1257/pol.20240893Additional Materials
JEL Classification
- D72 Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
- F13 Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
- F14 Empirical Studies of Trade
- L14 Transactional Relationships; Contracts and Reputation; Networks
- O19 International Linkages to Development; Role of International Organizations
- P33 Socialist Institutions and Their Transitions: International Trade, Finance, Investment, Relations, and Aid