The Future of US Economic Growth
American Economic Review
vol. 104,
no. 5, May 2014
(pp. 44-49)
Abstract
Modern growth theory suggests that more than three-quarters of growth since 1950 reflects rising educational attainment and research intensity. As these transition dynamics fade, US economic growth is likely to slow at some point. However, the rise of China, India, and other emerging economies may allow another few decades of rapid growth in world researchers. Finally, and more speculatively, the shape of the idea production function introduces a fundamental uncertainty into the future of growth. For example, the possibility that artificial intelligence will allow machines to replace workers to some extent could lead to higher growth in the future.Citation
Fernald, John G., and Charles I. Jones. 2014. "The Future of US Economic Growth." American Economic Review, 104 (5): 44-49. DOI: 10.1257/aer.104.5.44Additional Materials
JEL Classification
- E23 Macroeconomics: Production
- E32 Business Fluctuations; Cycles
- J24 Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity
- N11 Economic History: Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations: U.S.; Canada: Pre-1913
- N12 Economic History: Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations: U.S.; Canada: 1913-
- O33 Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes
- O47 Measurement of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence