Discounting and Growth
- (pp. 534-37)
Abstract
In a growing economy, the discount rate to evaluate a long-term investment is the minimum rate of expected return that compensates for the increased intergenerational inequalities. Because the growth rate is uncertain, there is a precautionary argument in favor of lowering the discount rate. If shocks to growth are persistent, this is a robust argument for using a smaller discount rate for more distant time horizons. If climate damages are positively correlated with future consumption, a risk premium should be added to the climate discount rate, which could have an increasing term structure.Citation
Gollier, Christian. 2014. "Discounting and Growth." American Economic Review, 104 (5): 534-37. DOI: 10.1257/aer.104.5.534Additional Materials
JEL Classification
- D61 Allocative Efficiency; Cost-Benefit Analysis
- G12 Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
- H43 Project Evaluation; Social Discount Rate