A Bridge from Monty Hall to the Hot Hand: The Principle of Restricted Choice
Journal of Economic Perspectives
vol. 33,
no. 3, Summer 2019
(pp. 144-62)
(Complimentary)
Abstract
We show how classic conditional probability puzzles, such as the Monty Hall problem, are intimately related to the recently discovered hot hand selection bias. We explain the connection by way of the principle of restricted choice, an intuitive inferential rule from the card game bridge, which we show is naturally quantified as the updating factor in the odds form of Bayes's rule. We illustrate how, just as the experimental subject fails to use available information to update correctly when choosing a door in the Monty Hall problem, researchers may neglect analogous information when designing experiments, analyzing data, and interpreting results.Citation
Miller, Joshua B., and Adam Sanjurjo. 2019. "A Bridge from Monty Hall to the Hot Hand: The Principle of Restricted Choice." Journal of Economic Perspectives, 33 (3): 144-62. DOI: 10.1257/jep.33.3.144Additional Materials
JEL Classification
- C90 Design of Experiments: General
- D81 Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
- D83 Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
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