The Relative Importance of Aggregate and Sectoral Shocks and the Changing Nature of Economic Fluctuations
- (pp. 119-48)
Abstract
A principal components decomposition of sectoral IP data reveals that the contribution of aggregate shocks to the variance of aggregate output declined from about 70 percent in the period 1967–1983 to about 30 percent after 1983. We develop an "islands" model with two sectors and costly labor reallocation to investigate how this change in the relative importance of shocks alters business cycle moments. A version of the model with relatively more important sectoral shocks results in a sizeable decline in the cyclicality of labor productivity and is consistent with changes in several other business cycle moments observed in the data.Citation
Garin, Julio, Michael J. Pries, and Eric R. Sims. 2018. "The Relative Importance of Aggregate and Sectoral Shocks and the Changing Nature of Economic Fluctuations." American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 10 (1): 119-48. DOI: 10.1257/mac.20140089Additional Materials
JEL Classification
- E13 General Aggregative Models: Neoclassical
- E23 Macroeconomics: Production
- E24 Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
- E32 Business Fluctuations; Cycles
- J21 Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
- J24 Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity
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