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  3. American Economic Journal: Economic Policy
  4. May 2023
  5. Pensions and Fertility: Microeconomic Evidence

Pensions and Fertility: Microeconomic Evidence

  • Alexander M. Danzer
  • Lennard Zyska
American Economic Journal: Economic Policy
vol. 15, no. 2, May 2023
(pp. 126-65)
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Abstract

This study identifies the causal effect of pension generosity on women's fertility behavior. It capitalizes on Brazil's expansion of the pension system to rural workers, whose pension wealth subsequently more than tripled. Difference-in-difference, instrumental variable, and event study methods show that the pension reform reduces the propensity of childbearing of women of fertile age by 8 percent in the short run. Completed fertility declines by 1.3 children within 20 years after the reform, reducing the contribution base of the pay-as-you-go pension system in the long run. The fertility response is strongest at higher birth parities, among older women, and among mothers with sons.

Citation

Danzer, Alexander M., and Lennard Zyska. 2023. "Pensions and Fertility: Microeconomic Evidence." American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, 15 (2): 126-65. DOI: 10.1257/pol.20200440

Additional Materials

JEL Classification

  • H55 Social Security and Public Pensions
  • I38 Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty: Government Programs; Provision and Effects of Welfare Programs
  • J13 Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
  • J16 Economics of Gender; Non-labor Discrimination
  • O15 Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration
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