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Effects of United States Proposed Trade Policies

Paper Session

Saturday, Jan. 6, 2018 12:30 PM - 2:15 PM

Pennsylvania Convention Center, 202-A
Hosted By: Society of Policy Modeling
  • Chair: Fred Campano, Fordham University

Simulating Some of the Administration's Proposed Trade Policies

Fred Campano
,
Fordham University
Dominick Salvatore
,
Fordham University

Abstract

The aim of this research is to assess the international transmission of trade policies originating in the United States to its major trading partners, most of which are members of the G20. We began by estimating twenty-one macroeconomic models of the G20 based on the national accounts (by expenditure) from the United Nations Statistical Department. The baseline scenario is based upon a Harrod-Domar model on the supply side and demand equations for household consumption, government and imports. A 21 by 21 world trade matrix was constructed from the bilateral export data also produced by the UN statistical department. This provided a mechanism to estimate the exports of the national and regional models from the trade shares. Based on the new exports, GDP is re-summed and the demand side of the economy is re-estimated. This is continued until the system convergences. The final estimates and the baseline estimates are compared to give an estimate of the impact of the change resulting from the assumptions corresponding to the import policy.

Back to the Future: What to Expect from Trump’s Trade Policies

Caroline Freund
,
Peterson Institute of International Economics

Abstract

TBD

United States Trade Policy and Global Production Chains

Dawn Holland
,
United Nations

Abstract

The paper considers the role of US trade policy from the perspective of the global value chains and the location decision of multi-national enterprises. Multinational enterprises account for more than 25 per cent of private sector employment in the United States, and have acted as the driving force behind the US labour market recovery since the global financial crisis, accounting for more than half of net private sector employment gains since 2009. The United States’ Government has proposed a sweeping review of existing trade deals, including the imposition of ad hoc import tariffs on goods from certain locations. The gradual removal of barriers to cross-border trade and investment over the last few decades opened the door to a rapid expansion of intricate cross-border production chains. The paper considers the impact of a rise in import tariffs on location decisions, and the likely impact on job creation in both the United States and abroad.

United States Withdrawal from International Trade: Analyzing the Impact on the Global Trading System

Sherman Robinson
,
Peterson Institute of International Economics

Abstract

TBD
Discussant(s)
Fred Campano
,
Fordham University
Dominick Salvatore
,
Fordham University
JEL Classifications
  • F1 - Trade
  • E6 - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook