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Hosted By:
American Economic Association
The Economic Impact of COVID-19
Paper Session
Sunday, Jan. 3, 2021 10:00 AM - 12:00 PM (EST)
- Chair: Serena Ng, Columbia University
Behavior and the Transmission of COVID-19
Abstract
We show that a simple model of COVID-19 that incorporates feedback from disease prevalence to disease transmission through an endogenous response of human behavior does a remarkable job of fitting the main features of data on the growth rates of daily deaths observed across a large number countries and States of the United States from March into November of 2020. This finding, however, suggests a new empirical puzzle. Using an accounting procedure akin to that used for Business Cycle Accounting as in Chari Kehoe and Mcgrattan (2007), we show that when the parameters of the behavioral response of transmission to disease prevalence are estimated from the early phase of the epidemic, very large wedges that shift disease transmission rates holding disease prevalence fixed are required both across regions and within a region over time to have the model match the data on deaths from COVID-19 as an equilibrium outcome exactly. We show that these wedges correspond to large shifts in model forecasts for the long-run attack rate of COVID-19 both across locations and over time. Future research should focus on understanding the sources in these wedges in the relationships between disease prevalence and disease transmission.Implied Dividend Volatility and Expected Growth
Abstract
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3753691COVID-19 and the Costs of Deadly Disasters
Abstract
TBDDiscussant(s)
Sergio Rebelo
,
Northwestern University
Martin Eichenbaum
,
Northwestern University
Stefano Giglio
,
Yale University
Mark Watson
,
Princeton University
JEL Classifications
- E0 - General
- E3 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles