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Conflicts, Violence and Policies

Paper Session

Sunday, Jan. 5, 2025 10:15 AM - 12:15 PM (PST)

Hilton San Francisco Union Square, Union Square 5
Hosted By: Peace Science Society International
  • Chair: Raul Caruso, University of Cattolica del Sacro Cuore-Milan

The Impact of U.S. Elections on U.S. Defense Industry: Firm-level Evidence from 1996 to 2022

Anna Balestra
,
University of Cattolica del Sacro Cuore-Milan
Raul Caruso
,
University of Cattolica del Sacro Cuore-Milan

Abstract

This study examines the relationship between the US political cycle and the revenues of
US military manufacturing companies from 1996 to 2022. The research introduces a novel
approach by utilizing data on military manufacturing companies’ revenues, diverging from
the prevalent use of SIPRI data in the existing literature on military revenues. The primary
challenge in collecting defense revenues is dual engagement namely the fact that most
companies are engaged in both military and civilian production. This challenge is addressed
through cross-referencing company data with patent information. Furthermore, to distinguish
revenues stemming from military sales versus those from civilian and commercial sales, we
exclusively select data from business lines directly involved in military production. Data has
been collected for 103 US military manufacturing companies from 1996 to 2022. Consistent
with existing literature, the empirical analysis demonstrates that in the year preceding executive
election years, the growth rate of US defense revenues is lower compared to non-preceding
executive election years. Conversely, in executive election years, the growth rate of defense
revenues is higher compared to other years.

Faraway, So Close: The Impact of the Russia-Ukraine War on Political Violence

Michele Di Maio
,
Sapienza University of Rome and IZA
Patricia Justino
,
UNU-WIDER
Valerio Leone Sciabolazza
,
Sapienza University of Rome
Cecilia Nardi
,
Sapienza University of Rome

Abstract

We show that the Russia-Ukraine War-induced changes in the international price of wheat
affected political violence in Asia. Using data from 13 countries and more than 4 million cell-level
observations, we show that a higher wheat price increases political violence in areas that are more
suitable to produce that crop. We interpret this evidence as consistent with a rapacity effect being at
play: the higher value of agricultural output increases the incentive to violently appropriate it. Our
result is robust to a number of falsification and robustness tests. The effect is heterogeneous across
countries and cells types: in line with our interpretation of the empirical findings, the effect is larger
in countries that are net exporters of wheat and in cells that are rural. We also show that a higher
price of wheat increases political violence more in countries that are low-income, fragile, and
characterized by the presence of anti-government or terrorist groups, indicating that a higher value
of crop production is more likely to fuel violence in areas that are poor or not politically stable

Sea Rescue and Irregular Migration

Paul Michel
,
University of Cologne
Sarah Langlotz
,
University of Göttingen
Sebastian Leue
,
Helmut Schmidt University Hamburg

Abstract

Sea rescue, particularly civil sea rescue by non-governmental organizations, has been a
central point of contention in the European discourse on migration. This project combines evidence
from the Central Mediterranean Sea Passage based on secondary data with primary data from a
survey experiment in Nigeria. For the first part of the project, we compile a unique dataset of daily
observations on irregular migration attempts, the presence of sea and rescue (SAR) missions, and
administrative and political blockades of NGO vessels in the Central Mediterranean from 2016 to
2021. We leverage geo- referenced vessel position data based on satellite tracking data and self-
reported information from NGOs and political and administrative authorities. To mitigate reverse
causality concerns, we devise a novel instrumental variable design (IV) exploiting exogenous
variation in NGO vessel presence due to political or administrative blockades. Since this data only
permits an analysis of the SAR's effects on irregular migration "after" the initial migration decision
has been made, the second part contributes to our understanding of the extent to which sea rescue
features into the initial decision to migrate from origin countries. We run an information experiment
in Nigeria, where we randomly vary respondents’ access to a signal about the number of migrants
on boats in distress rescued by sea rescue vessels. We then test how this information alters migration
aspirations and a ranking of various factors that influence initial migration decisions

The Effects of Economic Sanctions on World Trade of Mineral Commodities. A Gravity Model Approach from 2009 to 2020

Raul Caruso
,
University of Cattolica del Sacro Cuore-Milan
Maria Cipollina
,
University of Molise

Abstract

This paper employs a gravity model to examine the impact of sanctions on the trade of mineral commodities, defined at a detailed level (i.e. six digits of the Harmonised System - HS), from 2009 to 2020. The dataset covers flows from 239 exporter countries to 38 OECD members. The primary findings highlight that: (i) a significant trade disruption is evident, characterized by an immediate 90 percent reduction, with a growing impact observed over time; (ii) sanctions-busting appears effective only in the very short term, albeit with weak supporting evidence; (iii) sender countries experience a decline in trade not only with target countries but also with third-party nations (negative network effect). Upon closer scrutiny of world regions and HS chapters, the evidence becomes nuanced. North American sender countries exhibit the ability to replace imports from target countries with alternative suppliers, while EU countries experience a clear-cut trade disruption. When examining different HS chapters, findings indicate that sanctions lead to a reduction in trade of mineral commodities classified under chapters 26 and 27, but not in those under chapter 25. Regarding sanctions-busting, it appears evident for commodities under Chapter 26. However, sender countries importing commodities under Chapter 25 seem to be able to shift to other sources, whereas sender countries importing commodities under Chapter 27 experience a substantial trade disruption.

Discussant(s)
Kusum Mundra
,
Rutgers University-Newark
Shanike Smart
,
Bucknell University
Mariana Spatareanu
,
Rutgers University-Newark
Phanindra V. Wunnava
,
Middlebury College
JEL Classifications
  • F5 - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy
  • H5 - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies