American Economic Journal:
Applied Economics
ISSN 1945-7782 (Print) | ISSN 1945-7790 (Online)
Star Wars: The Empirics Strike Back
American Economic Journal: Applied Economics
vol. 8,
no. 1, January 2016
(pp. 1–32)
Abstract
Using 50,000 tests published in the AER, JPE, and QJE, we identify a residual in the distribution of tests that cannot be explained solely by journals favoring rejection of the null hypothesis. We observe a two-humped camel shape with missing p-values between 0.25 and 0.10 that can be retrieved just after the 0.05 threshold and represent 10-20 percent of marginally rejected tests. Our interpretation is that researchers inflate the value of just-rejected tests by choosing "significant" specifications. We propose a method to measure this residual and describe how it varies by article and author characteristics. (JEL A11, C13)Citation
Brodeur, Abel, Mathias Lé, Marc Sangnier, and Yanos Zylberberg. 2016. "Star Wars: The Empirics Strike Back." American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, 8 (1): 1–32. DOI: 10.1257/app.20150044Additional Materials
JEL Classification
- A11 Role of Economics; Role of Economists; Market for Economists
- C13 Estimation: General
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