American Economic Journal:
Macroeconomics
ISSN 1945-7707 (Print) | ISSN 1945-7715 (Online)
The Fall in Global Fertility: A Quantitative Model
American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics
vol. 12,
no. 3, July 2020
(pp. 77–109)
(Complimentary)
Abstract
Over the past six decades, fertility rates have fallen dramatically in most middle- and low-income countries. To analyze these developments, we study a quantitative model of endogenous human capital and fertility choice, augmented to allow for social norms over family size. We parametrize the model using data on socioeconomic variables and information on funding for population-control policies aimed at affecting social norms and improving access to contraceptives. We simulate the implementation of population-control policies to gauge their contribution to the decline in fertility. We find that policies aimed at altering family-size norms accelerated and strengthened the decline in fertility, which would have otherwise taken place much more gradually.Citation
de Silva, Tiloka, and Silvana Tenreyro. 2020. "The Fall in Global Fertility: A Quantitative Model." American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 12 (3): 77–109. DOI: 10.1257/mac.20180296Additional Materials
JEL Classification
- J10 Demographic Economics: General
- J13 Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
- J18 Demographic Economics: Public Policy
- J24 Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity
- O15 Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration
- Z13 Economic Sociology; Economic Anthropology; Language; Social and Economic Stratification
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