American Economic Journal:
Macroeconomics
ISSN 1945-7707 (Print) | ISSN 1945-7715 (Online)
Learning-through-Survey in Inflation Expectations
American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics
vol. 15,
no. 2, April 2023
(pp. 254–78)
Abstract
When surveys rely on repeat participants, this raises the possibility that survey participation may affect future responses, perhaps by prompting information acquisition between survey waves. We show that these "learning-through-survey" effects are large for household inflation expectations. Repeat survey participants generally have lower inflation expectations and uncertainty, particularly if their initial uncertainty was high. Consequently, repeat participants may be more informed about or attentive to inflation. This has important implications: for example, inflation expectations of new participants are more influenced by oil prices, and estimates of the elasticity of intertemporal substitution are lower for new participants.Citation
Kim, Gwangmin, and Carola Binder. 2023. "Learning-through-Survey in Inflation Expectations." American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 15 (2): 254–78. DOI: 10.1257/mac.20200387Additional Materials
JEL Classification
- C83 Survey Methods; Sampling Methods
- D84 Expectations; Speculations
- E31 Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
- E37 Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
- E58 Central Banks and Their Policies
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