AEA Papers and Proceedings
ISSN 2574-0768 (Print) | ISSN 2574-0776 (Online)
Will Wealth Weaken Weather Wars?
AEA Papers and Proceedings
vol. 114,
May 2024
(pp. 65–69)
Abstract
This study estimates the moderating impact of economic development on climate-conflict linkages during 1989–2019 in Africa, the world region that in recent decades has experienced the most armed conflict. We build a spatially disaggregated dataset that merges multiple decades of georeferenced data on climate shocks and conflict events with both local- and national-level measures of economic development to help shed light on the relative importance of local opportunity costs versus state capacity. We find that higher national GDP per capita greatly dampens the conflict risk associated with higher temperatures, suggesting that enhanced state capacity is a key factor.Citation
Burke, Marshall, Joel Ferguson, Solomon Hsiang, and Edward Miguel. 2024. "Will Wealth Weaken Weather Wars?" AEA Papers and Proceedings, 114: 65–69. DOI: 10.1257/pandp.20241055Additional Materials
JEL Classification
- D74 Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions
- E23 Macroeconomics: Production
- O11 Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
- O13 Economic Development: Agriculture; Natural Resources; Energy; Environment; Other Primary Products
- O17 Formal and Informal Sectors; Shadow Economy; Institutional Arrangements
- O44 Environment and Growth
- Q54 Climate; Natural Disasters and Their Management; Global Warming